Betting Markets Called The Presidential Election More Accurately Than Polls

Betting Markets Called The Presidential Election More Accurately Than Polls

According to the odds, Biden is close to a 90% favorite to be the next president. This comes as Donald Trump’s leads in Pennsylvania and Georgia are slowly slipping away. He’s up by fewer than 2,000 votes in Georgia and 25,000 votes in Pennsylvania with only mail-in votes left to be counted.

All that the former Vice President needs to win the race is Arizona and Nevada, both of which he’s currently favored to pull out. If one of those fails to come through, a victory in either Pennsylvania or Georgia would put Biden over the top. Why hasn’t Trump been able to re-gain any momentum that he had at this point on Tuesday night, when he had a 71.7% chance to win? The three most important states left on the board — Pennsylvania, Arizonaand Georgia — continue to look bleak, if the betting market is to be believed. Joe Biden’s odds continue to shorten over the course of the day. Nevada and Georgia have both released votes over the past hour and the numbers continue to break right for Biden in both states.

The PredictIt market gave Clinton an 81 percent probability of winning the White House. IEM’s “Winner Takes All” market showed her with a 71 percent chance . The vast majority of big-dollar political betting occurs outside America. Wagering on elections in the United States is limited by law to relatively small trading platforms connected to universities, which use data from the markets for academic research. Biden was also a favorite to win the presidency with bettors on Betfair.

  • Joe Biden went from around -650 earlier this evening to at Betfair, but his chances of winning the election only improved by between 1-2%.

A lesson in implied probability — as American odds seem to rise in a big way, the probability doesn’t change all that much. Joe Biden’s implied probability has adjusted slightly from 84.4% to 84.8% over the past hour, while Donald Trump has moved from 15.6% to 15.2%. Joe Biden’s odds have hit -909, which translates to an 87.5% implied probability. President Donald Trump’s lead in Pennsylvania is down to around 26,000 votes. It’s been shrinking for the better part of two days as the state has been counting mail-in votes that heavily tilt in Joe Biden’s favor. Biden has also cut Trump’s lead in Pennsylvania to 18,042 votes with 3% of the state’s vote remaining.

Joe Biden has now taken the lead in both Georgia and Pennsylvania, leaving Donald Trump very little chance of re-election. Very little changed overnight, as Joe Biden continues to hold a commanding lead as the remaining votes still need to be counted. Although some events during 2020 led election betters to believe this could be changing. Many of the key election dates are set months or years in advance. As of early 2021, only two dates have been set for the 2024 election cycle. Political pollsters and punters learned plenty of lessons from the 2016 election, where Trump claimed a historic victory over Clinton.

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All data will be updated throughout the many midterms, scandals, and surprise announcements that are sure to come between now and election night. “A passionate sports betting broadcaster and journalist with over 15 years spent in the gambling industry.” There are some weird trends that appear to capture the imagination of the country. School kids voting for president boast a +80% chance of getting it right every year.

This is a +1.5% Biden shift from an hour ago, +6.8% change from 8 a.m. ET, and, perhaps most notably, Biden’s best odds to win all race. His previous high came back on Oct. 13, when he had a 67.6% chance, according to Betfair’s odds. Heading into Election Day, Biden’s odds gave him a 66.6% implied probability of winning. His odds fell overnight, hitting an Election Day low of 61.4% at three different hours (between 2 and 10 a.m. ET). Over that same span, Trump’s odds hit an Election Day high of 38.6% at those three hour markers. Biden’s betting odds stayed the same, but Trump’s odds shortened a touch, causing his chances of winning to bump up slightly from 31.8% to 32.7%.

As of early 2021, only Betfair is offering odds because they are the only bookmaker taking bets on the next election. We assume Betway and PredictIt will be taking bets at some point and those odds will be added in. New customers only, min deposit and bet £10 (£20 if E/W bet) from UK Debit card only. 2 x £10 Free Bets valid for 7 days, stake not returned, no cash out.

With a day to go before the Nov. 3 election day, betting companies say they’re still seeing bets pour in. According to betting sites, Trump’s odds are the same now as they were in April, while DeSantis remained stable from his May numbers. Trump’s odds to win in 2024 also ticked back up, from +800 to +700, while DeSantis’ odds remained at +1200. The odds are even more lopsided if you want to bet on who will win the popular vote, with Biden’s Democrats odds at 1.14 versus 5.75 for Trump’s Republicans. Move over Super Bowl, because the British Columbia Lottery Corporation expects this to be the “single-most popular betting event in the history of,” with approximately 10,000 bets expected. BCLC was the first jurisdiction in Canada to offer novelty betting on the US election, doing so through in 2014. Biden had a 253 to 214 lead in the state-by-state Electoral College vote that determines the winner, according to most major television networks, and was inching toward securing the 270 votes needed to win.

They are posting lines, just like they would for other non-sports events, like the Oscars. Although they are prohibited from taking bets, it’s more of a marketing gimmick, for entertainment purposes only.

The US election still hasn’t ended for one person who bet £1 million (A$1.8m) on Joe Biden to be the next president. I am a staff writer on the vices beat, covering cannabis, gambling and more. Previously at Forbes, I covered the world’s richest people as a member of the wealth team. I have been a staff writer at Inc. magazine where I wrote about entrepreneurs doing business in the legal fringes of society. Before that, I reported stories that took me to the West Bank, Moscow and Brooklyn. Betfair’s claims indicate it may be awhile before bettors are able to cash in their tickets. The company is monitoring President Trump’s legal challenges in several states, which have been declared unfounded by some Republicans and former administration officials.

Betfair has Biden is now favored in Michigan, Nevada and Wisconsin. That, plus Biden looking good in Arizona, has resulted in the overall odds for the race continuing to move in his direction after bottoming out at 25.8% chance to win at 10 p.m. We’re still a long way from this election being over, but some key states are starting to turn in Joe Biden’s direction, according to the betting market. We’re starting to get some news from the key swing state of Wisconsin. As the sun rises on the East Coast, so have Joe Biden’s Presidential odds. Just one hour ago, the former Vice President’s odds sat at -159, which correlates to a 61.5% chance to win. This comes on the heels of CNN projecting Biden to win the key swing states of Michigan and Wisconsin.

“We think this is going to be about twice as big as 2016, based on the numbers we’ve seen so far,” Shaddick said. “Everything points to this being bigger than 2016, and potentially bigger than any single one-off betting market ever—never mind in politics.” Online gambling platform Betfair has suspended betting on the US presidential election after US President Donald Trump tested positive for Covid-19, according to its website.

| Amid the fall-out of Trump’s final days as president, his VP Mike Pence may instigate a push to become the Republican candidate in 2024. The company’s sportsbook manager told Forbes a surge of bets has been placed on Trump to win over the past few days. Harris also remains the overall Presidential odds favorite at +350, an acknowledgment of Biden’s age entering office and questions as to whether he will serve more than one term. As of 6pm, SkyBet gave the odds of a Biden victory at 1/6, while it put the chances of Mr Trump retaining power at 4/1. According to data from various odds aggregators, the markets started to shift as Mr Biden overtook Mr Trump in the battleground state of Wisconsin. All bonuses come with a “rollover requirement.” A “rollover requirement” is an amount you must bet before requesting a payout.

“Eventually, bettors discovered they could bet on politics,” he says. The World Cup is estimating to be the biggest betting event in the world. Bettors laid out 7.2 billion euros during the final match between Croatia and France during the 2018 FIFA World Cup. When it comes to global sports, the World Cup is thought to be the largest betting event. The final match between Croatia and France during the 2018 FIFA World Cup brought in 7.2 billion euros. The second biggest betting event for Betfair Exchange was the 2016 election when Betfair’s handle was $257 million (£199 million) before Trump, the underdog, beat Hillary Clinton. Over $300 million was wagered on the presidential election at Betfair, with the largest bet coming on Joe Biden at $1.3 million.

Election Odds & Predictions: Sportsbooks Begin Paying Out Biden Bettors After Electoral College Vote

It appears Biden has a better chance to win Ohio than polls expected. The betting market makes his current odds to take the state +120, which is equivalent to a 45.5% chance and higher than where he opened the day +175. It is also possible to wager on other results of the 2024 election. The political betting market includes who will win the popular vote, who will win the Electoral College, or who will control the US House of Representatives.

The mail-in vote has been cast for Biden at a heavy rate in both states, so the betting market is expecting the former Vice President to take one states. Sportsbooks have been holding onto all money bet on the 2020 presidential election — part because of Donald Trump’s attempts to overturn the election, but mostly because they could. Some sportsbooks have paid out Joe Biden bettors after electoral college voters made Biden’s victory official on Monday. They change daily based on peoples’ perceptions of who will win the election. If Trump continues to campaign for the 2024 election, the odds could continue to be as volatile as they were in 2020 because of his unpredictability. When comparing the presidential odds, a plus symbol means that the option is an underdog. As polling day neared, the split between bets for Trump and Clinton was notable.


Biden had been favored before Tuesday’s Election Day, but his chances according to oddsmakers plunged to less than one-in-three overnight after Trump pushed ahead in the swing state of Florida. Trump earlier falsely claimed victory over Biden with millions of votes still uncounted. Now, we’ll be tracking how the odds shift between now and when the results are final. It’s hardly a surprise to see stability return to a race that has been defined by it. Presidential Election between Trump and Hillary Clinton, we really haven’t seen any major odds shifts in the past month-plus. Over the past 90 minutes since our last update, Trump’s chances of being re-elected have jumped from 32.7% to 45.2% — a 12.5% swing. While Biden hasn’t rebounded to his Election Day high of 68.2%, it’s important to remember that the election was a mere coinflip a half-hour ago, which shows how quickly things can change in a race like this.

If Biden takes all of the aforementioned states, he’d win the election — even if he loses Pennsylvania, Georgia and North Carolina, all of which are still in play to varying degrees. Joe Biden is stretching out his lead over Donald Trump to win the election. Biden is a significant favorite in both Pennsylvania and Arizona. He also recently moved to being a slight favorite in Georgia, according to Betfair’s odds. Winning Pennsylvania would get Biden above the magic number of 270 Electoral College votes. Winning Arizona and losing Pennsylvania would require Biden to win at least one of Nevada, Georgia or North Carolina. Conversely, Donald Trump’s odds have dropped to +680, putting his probability of winning a second term at 12.5%.

Those sportsbooks are not subject to regulations and are not legal in the United States. Betting on political election outcomes is not currently legal at any U.S.-regulated sportsbook. As election night progressed, it wasn’t unusual even for politically engaged liberals to see the returns in Florida and North Carolina and have considerable worries about a 2016-esque disaster. The odds’ heavy moves toward Trump that night—when he spent an hour or two as a 70 percent or better favorite on many websites—reflected some of that.

For example, the 538 forecast closed with Biden having an 89% chance to win, compared a 10% chance for Trump (they had an Electoral College tie as a 1% possibility). No, due to restrictive regulations against political and election betting, sportsbooks won’t take an election bet. When Nevada state set the regulations for sports betting in 1985, they restricted betting to professional sports. Over the years, Nevada loosened the rules to include college sports and the Olympics. Despite that, the state still does not allow for election betting. Some of the top oddsmakers in Vegas are offering their predictions.

First, think about the median person who regularly engages in online betting. Throughout the year at Bovada, Morrow says, the money coming in was around 2-to-1 for Trump. At BetOnline, around 60 percent of bettors were on Trump, though the total money was closer to 50-50, meaning Biden backers placed some large bets.

Betfair Is Still Not Ready To Declare A Winner, Say They Want To Avoid confusion As Trumps Challenges Continue

If you were cursed enough to be following betting markets on election night, those numbers might have hit you like the New York Times’ 2016 needle on megasteroids. Political analysts had warned that delays in counting mail-in ballots could create a “red mirage,” where Republicans would look good based on the Election Day vote before Democrats made up ground. They moved hard toward Trump when it became clear he would win Florida and looked good in North Carolina, Ohio, and Texas.

Legal US online sports betting websites do not accept betting on presidential elections or any other political betting. Yet the coronavirus pandemic, civil rights protests and subsequent economic downturn in 2020 exposed a lack of leadership in Trump that bettors leapt on.

But for Trump fans, it seems possible that the betting odds acted as “proof” that the polls were wrong, the smart people knew it, and their man would win. Also, consider that Trump maintained that he could not lose this election, at least not legally.

The odds-shifting bonanza on election night, with all that money on the line, was not a sign that the oddsmakers knew something the mainstream media did not. Instead, the Trump spike was the peak of a phenomenon that had been unfolding all year. Many Trump supporters were certain he could not lose, and they plowed so much money into betting on him that they distorted markets in his (and ultimately, the sportsbooks’) favor.

Bookmakers run their markets on who will win the next US election years before the vote actually takes place. And this is good news for bettors who have their finger on the pulse when it comes to political fluctuations. American pollsters often accurately predict who will win the US election – and indeed the political betting odds usually follow the same trend and reflect the mood of the nation. Yet 2016 became the year where polling companies and bookmakers had to think again about political elections.

Just 27% of bettors have put money on Biden so far, with other non-candidates accounting for the remaining 29%. Matthew Shaddick, head of political betting British firm GVC, said the 2020 election has doubled the 2016 election in terms of the amount of wagers on the race. GVC Holdings isn’t the only organization that has reported record gambling spikes surrounding the presidential race. London-based bookmaker William Hill told Digital Journal it expects the race to bring in nearly $13 million, which would make the election its largest gambling event of the year.

Us Presidential Odds

The 77-year-old had been the betting favourite before election day, but his chances fell to less than one-in-three overnight after Mr Trump had pushed ahead in the swing state of Florida. The US legal wagers are not allowed to hold a bet on the presidential election, but European and offshore companies do offer the opportunity for bettors from around the world. According to Matthew Shaddick, the head of political betting with British gambling company GVC Holdings, part of the attraction in this year’s presidential race is Trump himself. For Pat Murrow, an oddsmaker at Bovada, an offshore sportsbook based in Antigua, the U.S. election “is taking over my life.” Trump vs. Biden will be Bovada’s biggest single-day sporting event as well. At the Westgate, the biggest single betting day, like every U.S. sportsbook, is the Super Bowl. With more postal votes cast than ever before, it appears very possible the result of the 2020 US presidential election may not be known for some time.

The emotions and strategies behind record-setting bets on a MAGA victory that never came. He said he believed Clinton would likely to win both North Carolina and Florida and that a Trump victory was unlikely. PredictIt is not legally permitted to disclose the amount of money traded, but its top three markets have all reached the maximum number of participants.

Trump’s current 38.6% chance to win are his best odds in more than a month. These odds represent an all-time high for Biden and an all-time low for Trump. It’ll be interesting to see which direction they go from here as we’re five hours away from the starting to get some hard data from key swing states.

Specialising in Current & Live Vegas Style Odds, Weekly NFL , MLB, NBA, NHL Lines, this weekends UFC & Boxing Odds as well as daily, weekly & monthly Sports Betting bonus offers. BCLC expects this election will smash its previous record for a single event, when approximately 7,200 bets were placed on the 2016 US election — making it more popular than any sporting event. “It might be the biggest ever market on anything pretty much and outstrip football worldwide. I guess a billion pounds ($1.3 billion) is being bet.” Although Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump surprised polls and bookmakers back in 2016, Joe Biden is now the favourite for GVC’s gaming brands, which include Ladbrokes Coral and BWin. The total amount wagering on the presidential race between Trump and Biden was estimated to be $1 billion globally, even before polling day. Bets would typically be settled following a result declaration from news networks and a concession speech by the losing presidential candidate, the platform said on Friday.

All odds within this article correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change. The Democratic challenger is now very, very short in the latest US Election odds at around 1/18, reflecting his increasing advantage in the Nevada count as votes continue to come in. The oddsmakers were living in the same simulation as the rest of us, unable to get Trump supporters to stop betting on their hero (and to stop adding to the sportsbooks’ liability). Both Bovada and BetOnline felt they were conservative with Trump’s odds, trying to slow down his backers. “We’ve got people living in two different realities politically, and we’ve got people betting in two different realities,” Sherwin says.

Trump is a big betting favorite to win Georgia, despite some predictive models thinking that is still a very tight race. It’s been 2.5 hours since we last checked in … and nothing has changed in the betting odds for who will be the next President of the United States. Joe Biden remains a huge favorite to win the Presidency as votes continue to be counted in Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada. When Trump’s election odds are set at -125, presidential bet odds give Republicans a 55.56% chance of winning. Getty Images Professional bettors do not have all the action to themselves. “I have noticed my other friends who don’t bet sports are interested in the political markets now,” says Phillip. It started months ago when one friend asked him to place a longshot bet on New York Governor Andrew Cuomo to become president.

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